From the Stochastic Weather to a Putative Chaotic Earth System

Orfeu Bertolami

Submitted on 20 September 2022


In this brief report we discuss how continuous changes on the physical parameters that determine the weather conditions may lead to long term climate variability. This variability of the weather patterns are a response to continuous random short period weather excitations that are imprinted in the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land system, the Earth System. Given that Earth System is, in the Anthropocene, dominated by the human action, it responds to the intensity and the rate of change of the humankind activities. Thus, we argue, in the context of a specific model of the Earth System, that this rate of change may admit a chaotic-type behaviour.


Comment: Based on talk delivered at the Green Marble 2022, "International Meeting on Anthropocene Studies and Ecocriticism: Only One Earth", June 30th - July 2nd, 2022, Porto, Portugal

Subjects: Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics; Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics